Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-23 12.468770 14.284228 16.242268 18.507407 21.051824 23.817812 27.048362
2025-03-30 9.963890 12.453266 15.347143 18.944738 23.280996 28.321855 34.607229
2025-04-06 8.450733 11.176957 14.503029 18.831603 24.284813 30.892948 39.468993
2025-04-13 6.926332 9.658663 13.145264 17.877979 24.085413 31.894740 42.399165
2025-04-20 6.280038 9.151533 12.954332 18.297658 25.539218 34.928938 47.926327
2025-04-27 5.726908 8.691302 12.753219 18.643043 26.865036 37.819103 53.374576
2025-05-04 5.124921 8.085910 12.277028 18.537772 27.523979 39.803134 57.659125
2025-05-11 4.567960 7.481201 11.734691 18.270732 27.901420 41.377349 61.412380
2025-05-18 4.168402 7.068100 11.425312 18.297268 28.668964 43.498746 65.993265
2025-05-25 3.865203 6.771445 11.257605 18.506364 29.692533 46.008211 71.215801
2025-06-01 3.545680 6.415062 10.963059 18.487801 30.353464 47.996623 75.742474
2025-06-08 3.229424 6.031876 10.590958 18.310910 30.743222 49.577111 79.706565
2025-06-15 3.006544 5.792706 10.441412 18.491447 31.720285 52.122049 85.296552
2025-06-22 2.878532 5.707723 10.539580 19.080458 33.377527 55.787680 92.770433
2025-06-29 2.632543 5.384647 10.204374 18.913484 33.782213 57.493921 97.241545
2025-07-06 2.289440 4.846691 9.450893 17.973884 32.840998 56.998522 98.184825
2025-07-13 2.185015 4.752668 9.477137 18.389226 34.196948 60.258079 105.273867
2025-07-20 2.079270 4.645399 9.469182 18.738423 35.450069 63.393019 112.274739
2025-07-27 1.921958 4.418901 9.221068 18.631880 35.894265 65.190849 117.127815
2025-08-03 1.759116 4.164520 8.899196 18.363897 36.029509 66.461237 121.133926
2025-08-10 1.645063 4.001756 8.741209 18.390458 36.690051 68.647042 126.761343
2025-08-17 1.560186 3.893799 8.682510 18.600542 37.691731 71.456719 133.553995
2025-08-24 1.457994 3.737195 8.513257 18.581883 38.262139 73.525239 139.129563